Last week, the Asylum Division changed the way it processes cases. Instead of interviewing asylum cases in the order they were filed (first-in, first-out), cases will now be interviewed on a last-in, first-out or LI-FO basis. We’ve been learning more about the reasons for this change, and I want to share what I’ve heard here. But before I get to that, I want to discuss another important change that has recently become apparent: The dramatic drop in grant rates for cases at most asylum offices.

The below chart compares asylum approval rates at the various asylum offices for the months of December 2016 and December 2017 (the most recent month when data is available). Admittedly, this is a snapshot of events, and an imperfect snapshot at that. Nevertheless, I think it illustrates a larger trend.

The left number in each column represents the number of cases approved during the month. The number on the right is the number of cases completed. The percentage shows the percentage of cases approved in that office. So in December 2016, Arlington approved 89 cases out of 317 completed, meaning that 28% of completed cases were approved. Conversely, 72% of applicants were denied asylum or referred to court, but that includes people who failed to show up for their interview, so the denial rate for people who actually appear is not as bad as it seems from the chart (as they say, in life, eighty percent of success is showing up). With that out of the way, here are the stats:

So you can see that asylum grant rates are pretty dramatically down at most offices, and that for the entire country, they are down about 40% (from 38.3% to 22.7%) (you can see the source for these statistics here for 2016 and here for 2017). While the various grant rates could represent anomalies, they comport with larger trends, as shown in the next chart, which lists grant rates for the U.S. as a whole over the last few years:

You can see from this chart that asylum grant rates have been dropping since FY 2015 (which began on October 1, 2014), but the decrease is more pronounced in the two most recent fiscal years (and of course, we are only a few months into FY 2018). Further, if the December 2017 data is any indicator, the grant rate is continuing to drop.

My first question–and be forewarned, I don’t really intend to answer these questions–is, Why is this happening? The temptation is to attribute the drop to President Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda, but I don’t find that explanation very convincing. First, grant rates began to fall long before Mr. Trump took office. Second, even after he was sworn in–in the second quarter of FY 2017–it takes months to implement new policies. Most asylum officers were hired pre-Trump, and that was especially true in FY 2017, since it takes time to hire and train new people. In addition, I have not observed any real changes in the pool of asylum officers that I meet (then again, the grant rate at my local office–Arlington–seems to have held steady, at least as illustrated in the first chart).

So if it’s not President Trump, what’s going on? One possibility–and I suspect this is the explanation that the Asylum Division favors–is that a higher portion of cases interviewed in recent years are meritless. In other words, as the backlog grew and delays became longer, people with weak cases were incentivized to file for asylum in order to get their employment authorization document (“EAD”). These people knew that their cases would take years, and so they filed mostly to obtain some status here and work legally. But now, as more and more of these people are reaching the interview stage, their cases are being denied. There is some evidence for this theory–according to the Asylum Division, of the 314,000 backlogged asylum cases, 50,000+ applications were filed more than 10 years after the applicant entered the United States. For various reasons, such cases are more likely to be meritless, and–even if they are legitimate–they are more likely to be denied due to the one year asylum filing deadline.

If this second explanation is correct, then perhaps there will be a silver lining to the recent change in how asylum cases are interviewed. If people get faster interviews, maybe fewer meritless applicants will seek asylum.

Whether or not this will work, we shall see. But a test is soon coming (probably). The Trump Administration has ended TPS (Temporary Protected Status) for El Salvador and other countries. It has also terminated the DACA program. This means that in the absence of a legislative fix, hundreds of thousands of people will have no way to avoid deportation other than to go into hiding or to seek asylum. You can bet that many of them will seek asylum (and indeed, given the violent countries from whence they came, many have legitimate reasons to fear return).

We know from a recent meeting at the Arlington Asylum Office that the end of TPS and DACA were two reasons for changing to the FI-LO process. But whether this new procedure will stem the potential tidal wave of applications, I have my doubts.

All this brings us to the final question (for today)–What does this mean for asylum seekers? As usual, I don’t have a good answer. People filing now can probably expect an interview soon and should submit all evidence so they are ready for the interview. However, if volume is too high, not everyone will get an interview. My impression is that if the interview is not scheduled within 21 days of receiving the receipt, then the case will “disappear” and will only be interviewed once the Asylum Office starts working on backlogged cases. It’s likely that some cases will disappear, since the number of people seeking asylum is still out-pacing the government’s ability to interview applicants. Also, there are (once again) increasing numbers of asylum seekers arriving at the U.S./Mexico border, and the Asylum Offices must devote resources to those cases as well.

Local offices control the expedite process and the short list, and it seems that most offices will continue to offer those options. However, the Asylum Division is expecting fewer “no shows” with the new system, and so there may be less slots available for expedited or short-listed cases.

Finally, under the pre-December 2014 system, when an asylum case was sent to Immigration Court, the judge would schedule a quick hearing date for any applicant who had not yet received his EAD (in an effort to dissuade meritless applicants from seeking asylum merely to get an EAD). It looks like the Immigration Courts will again be doing this same thing, and so if you have a fast asylum interview and you are referred to court, you should be prepared for a fast hearing date in court.

For what it’s worth, my impression is that the Asylum Division is well aware of the pain it will inflict by re-ordering how asylum cases are interviewed. But they are looking at the “big picture” and they hope that changing to a FI-LO system will reduce meritless applications and ultimately benefit legitimate asylum seekers. I hope they are correct, but until then, I fear things will be worse before they get better.

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By now, you may have heard that the Asylum Division–in a surprise move–has changed the order in which cases will be interviewed. This means that new cases, filed after January 29, 2018, will be interviewed before older, pending cases.

To understand what’s happening, let’s review a bit of history. Since the mid-1990s, when an asylum case was submitted, the Asylum Office attempted to interview the applicant within a couple months. But as the number of applicants increased, the Asylum Office was less able to handle the volume. Further, starting in maybe 2011 or 2012, large number of asylum seekers began arriving at the U.S./Mexico border and requesting protection (many of these applicants were “unaccompanied minors” – i.e., children without parents – whose cases received priority). In addition to their normal workload, Asylum Officers were assigned to assess these border cases and administer a credible fear interview (an initial evaluation of asylum eligibility). All this resulted in an inability to keep up with affirmative asylum applications. The result was The Backlog.

In my part of the country, the backlog began in probably 2012. We would mail asylum cases as normal. Some applicants would be interviewed within two months; other cases disappeared. Of the cases we mailed, about 60% were interviewed and 40% disappeared.

Although the Asylum Division recognized the problem, they were reluctant to change the way they processed cases. Their fear was that if they interviewed cases in the order received, all cases would move slowly. This would create an incentive for more people to submit fraudulent applications, knowing that their interview would be delayed and that they could remain in the United States for years with a work permit (150 days after she files for asylum, an applicant can apply for an employment authorization document). The problem, of course, was that cases in the backlog (the ones that “disappeared”) would never be adjudicated, and would remain in limbo forever.

Then, in December 2014, the Asylum Division decided to try a new approach: They would interview the oldest cases first. In a sense, this was more fair, as it gave people with “disappeared” cases a chance for an interview. At about the same time, the Asylum Division created the Affirmative Asylum Scheduling Bulletin. Now, for each asylum office, we could see who was being interviewed based on the date the application was filed. This at least gave applicants some sense of how their cases were progressing.

Whether the new system worked, or whether it encouraged fraudulent applicants who only wanted work permits, I do not know. I do know that cases have been moving very slowly since December 2014. I believe this is largely due to the prioritization of cases–unaccompanied minors and credible fear interviews received priority over “regular” asylum applicants, and since there were a lot of these, the Asylum Office has been crawling through its backlog of regular cases. We could see what was happening (or not happening) on the Affirmative Asylum Scheduling Bulletin.

Enter, the Trump Administration, which views asylum seekers as fraudsters. USCIS (which oversees the Asylum Division) announced the change in policy yesterday, and the change is retroactive–all cases filed on or after January 29, 2018 will (supposedly) be interviewed within 21 days. There is, of course, a caveat: “Workload priorities related to border enforcement may affect our ability to schedule all new applications for an interview within 21 days,” says USCIS.

According to USCIS, the new priorities are as follows:

• First priority: Applications that were scheduled for an interview, but the interview had to be rescheduled at the applicant’s request or the needs of USCIS.
• Second priority: Applications that have been pending 21 days or less.
• Third priority: All other pending affirmative asylum applications will be scheduled for interviews starting with newer filings and working back towards older filings

From this, it appears that unaccompanied minors will no longer be a priority, which may make things faster for “regular” applicants. Also, it appears that the system for requesting expedited interviews will remain in place: “Asylum office directors may consider, on a case-by-case basis, an urgent request to be scheduled for an interview outside of the priority order listed above” (I previously wrote about expediting affirmative asylum cases here). Finally, since cases are being interviewed on a “last in, first out” basis, there is no longer a need for the Asylum Office Scheduling Bulletin, and so USCIS has eliminated it (though wouldn’t it be nice if they used that website to provided updated information about what they are doing?).

USCIS has made the reasons for the change pretty clear: “Returning to a ‘last in, first out’ interview schedule will allow USCIS to identify frivolous, fraudulent or otherwise non-meritorious asylum claims earlier and place those individuals into removal proceedings.” Presumably, it will also allow legitimate cases to be granted more quickly, which may be good news for people planning to file for asylum in the near future.

Rumor has it that other changes are coming to the asylum system, but what they are, we do not yet know. Given the government’s view that many asylum seekers are fraudsters, I can’t imagine that such changes–if any–will be positive, but we shall see.

There is a lot to say about this new change, but for now, I want to urge people to remain cautious. We will have to see how this plays out in the coming weeks and months. Obviously, if you are a new asylum seeker, or if you filed recently, you need to complete your entire case now, so that you are ready if an interview is scheduled quickly. If you have a case in the backlog, and are now losing hope of ever receiving an interview, you should try to be patient–it may be that because unaccompanied minors are no longer a priority, and because fewer asylum seekers are arriving at the Southern border, cases will begin moving more quickly. Only time will tell, and if I have any news, I will try to post it here.

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