For years, the asylum backlogs in Immigration Court and the Asylum Office have been growing rapidly. But lately, they’ve been growing RAPIDLY–with a capital “R”. And a capital “APIDLY”. Probably I should add a few exclamation marks (!!!) after that and at least one “very” before it. What I’m trying to say is, of late, the backlogs have been growing at an insane rate.
Here, we’ll talk about what is happening and why, and try to guess what it all means for asylum seekers. (more…)
It is the job of a lawyer to learn about your situation and then advise you of your options. You want to know, “If I do X, what will happen?” In many areas of the law, attorneys can provide this type of advice. If you rob a bank and get caught, you will go to jail. If you sign a contract and then breach your agreement, you will be liable for damages. If you fail to pay taxes, you will face criminal and civil penalties.
But in immigration law–and particularly in asylum law–it is often impossible to provide precise advice. The unfortunate fact is that asylum seekers must live with significant uncertainty. (more…)
USCIS recently released some new information to Congress about the affirmative asylum backlog, and–surprise, surprise–the news is not good. The backlog continues to grow at a record-setting pace, meaning that under the agency’s last-in, first-out (LIFO) policy where new cases receive priority over old cases, those waiting for an interview are falling further and further behind. Worse, USCIS has indicated that they do not have the resources to reduce the backlog, and they don’t expect to receive those resources any time soon. (more…)
Here’s a common situation: A person files for asylum at the Asylum Office and her case is pending for years. During that time, she marries someone who does not have immigration status in the U.S., and she wants to add her spouse to her pending asylum application. And here’s another (less common) scenario: A person has a pending asylum application and the person’s child arrives in the United States and wants to join their parent’s case. Today, we’ll discuss how to add a dependent to an existing asylum case. (more…)
Immigration Courts across the U.S. have been randomly rescheduling and advancing cases without regard to attorney availability or whether we have the capacity to complete our cases. The very predictable result of this fiasco is that lawyers are stressed and overworked, our ability to adequately prepare cases has been reduced, and–worst of all–asylum seekers are being deprived of their right to a fair hearing. Besides these obvious consequences, the policy of reshuffling court cases is having other insidious effects that are less visible, but no less damaging. Here, I want to talk about some of the ongoing collateral damage caused by EOIR’s decision to toss aside due process of law in favor of reducing the Immigration Court backlog. (more…)
In a meeting held earlier this month, we received some updates from the Asylum Division. Although Acting Director Sue Raufer could point to some positive developments in asylum world, the news is generally pretty bleak. In a development that will shock no one, the worst news relates to the backlog, which is growing at an unprecedented rate.
It’s the rare occasion when I can report some good news, but it seems that USCIS is taking action to help people in the affirmative asylum backlog. According to the most recent data (from December 2021), there are about 438,500 cases pending at the Asylum Office. The large majority of these applicants have not yet received interviews. Now, USCIS has hired an additional 80 Asylum Officers who will be dedicated to interviewing applicants who filed for asylum on or before January 1, 2016, meaning that they will be interviewing asylum seekers who have been waiting the longest.
Here, we’ll discuss what this means for those applicants, and also for people who filed after January 1, 2016. I’ll also make some suggestions about how to schedule these interviews in a way that is fair to applicants and to their lawyers (i.e., I will beg USCIS to have mercy on us). (more…)
When you were in middle school, did you ever have a crush on a classmate? Did you analyze every stray glance and dissect every off-hand comment for signs that your crush liked you too? I feel like that’s what we’ve come to as observers of the asylum system. The mere mention of the words “asylum” and “backlog” by a government bureaucrat in the same sentence has become cause for celebration. My crush knows I exist! Woo Hoo!
Such a momentous event came to pass last week, when the Acting Director of the Office of Management and Budget (“OMB”) included the following paragraph in a letter to the Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, summarizing President Biden’s “Discretionary Funding Request” for FY2022–
Supports a Humane and Efficient Immigration System. The discretionary request supports the promise of a fair and equitable immigration system that welcomes immigrants and reflects the Nation’s values. The discretionary request provides $345 million for the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services to address naturalization and asylum backlogs, support up to 125,000 refugee admissions in 2022, and allow for systems and operations modernization. The discretionary request supports expanded access to the Alternatives to Detention program and provides enhanced case management services, particularly for families seeking asylum. (more…)
Way back in the summer of 2015, immigration lawyers started to notice that EOIR was scheduling hundreds, maybe thousands, of Immigration Court cases for a single date: November 29, 2019. Supposedly, this was a holding date, and all those cases would be rescheduled. Now, November 29, 2019 is upon us. As such, I thought it might be nice to re-visit my blog post from back in 2015, when all this seemed a long way off (plus, it being Thanksgiving, I wasn’t much in the mood to write something new). Have things changed since 2015? You bet. But mostly for the worse, as there are now over one million cases in the Immigration Court backlog (in contrast to 2015, when there were about 456,000 cases in the backlog). Anyway, without further ado, here is my blog post from July 1, 2015–
Postcard from the Apocalypse: November 29, 2019
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If you’re reading this, maybe there’s still hope. Today is November 30, 2019. Dawn. Yesterday, the world came to an end.
I am one of the few survivors. The very few. And I am sending this transmission back in time by Tachyon beam in a desperate attempt to avert the apocalypse and to save humanity. By my calculation, this message should be received in July 2015. Back then, in your present, it was not too late. Things could have—could still—turn out differently.
What happened? Nuclear war? Environmental degradation? Rapture? No. Such disasters, we could have dealt with. It was something at once more horrifying and more mundane. More innocent, yet more insidious. Small, yet massive. You get the idea.
“What was it, then?!” you plead. Listen well, my friend, and I will tell you the tale of November 29, 2019. On that day, the U.S. Immigration Court system collapsed upon itself, creating a singularity–a black hole, if you will–that absorbed everything in its path: First it took foreigners. No one seemed to mind. Then it took hippies, Libertarians, bachelorettes, and then people who enjoy listening to the Redirect immigration podcast (seriously, though, you should be listening to that). Finally, it took everyone and everything else. Now, all that’s left is me and a few others. We don’t have much time.
It all began innocently enough: Immigration Courts started scheduling a dozen or so aliens for hearings at the same time and place. Didn’t they know that this violates a basic law of physics and, as it turns out, a basic law of Immigration Court—No two aliens can occupy the same hearing space at the same time! Read your Archimedes, people! Isaac Newton! Anybody?
Oh, the powers-that-be at EOIR (the Executive Office for Immigration Review) didn’t think it was a big deal. They were violating the alien’s due process rights, but only a little. And it was for a good cause—efficiency, so what did it matter? But then they got arrogant. Master Calendar Hearings with 40, 50, 60 or more people. Half a dozen respondents on the same transcript, answering charges and conceding removability en masse. Due process protections eroding. But so slowly that no one noticed. The lawyers, the aliens, all of us became complacent. We let it happen.
And then things got worse. In 2014, Immigration Judges started scheduling scores, then hundreds, then thousands of aliens to appear on a single day—November 29, 2019. They claimed this was some sort of “holding” date; that the cases would be rescheduled. Lies! Instead of making the hard journey up Mt. Sinai to seek justice, they worshipped below at the idols of efficiency and budget cuts. Who sows the wind shall reap the whirlwind!
Before anyone really understood what was happening, tens of thousands of immigrants were scheduled to appear in Immigration Court on that fateful day, November 29, 2019 (may it be obliterated from memory). Throughout November, they gathered. They came by themselves or with their families. Small children without parents. Old people. People who had lived in the U.S. for years and people who were fresh off the hovercraft (hovercrafts were very popular in 2019). They filled the Immigration Court waiting rooms and spilled into the hallways. Masses of people, huddled together. Waiting. Soon, the court buildings were full, but still they came.
EOIR saw what was happening. They could have stopped the madness. They could have rescheduled the cases. But they didn’t. Why? Was it a conspiracy that reached to the highest levels of government? Or had some scheduling clerk gone rogue? I suppose we’ll never know, and anyway, it doesn’t much matter.
The more the foreigners gathered, the more they came. It was exponential, logarithmic, seismic. Soon, it wasn’t only people facing deportation. People with TPS started showing up. They were followed by conditional residents who were still married (miracle of miracles). Then there were people with valid visas, still in lawful status: B’s, TN’s, and L’s, Q’s and R’s, H1-B’s and E’s, all varieties of A’s and J’s, and even the odd I or C visa holder. I knew we were in trouble by the time the lawful permanent residents began showing up. And when U.S. citizens started arriving, it was clear that something terrible would happen.
And then it did. The collective gravity of all those people began feeding on itself, swallowing everything and everyone in its path–a black hole. But like I say, if you’re reading this, there’s still hope. There is a simple solution to the Immigration Court backlog. It’s so obvious, that it’s a wonder no one noticed it before. All you have to do is…
ERROR ERROR ERROR END TRANSMISSION
Last month, the Asylum Division released the most recent data about the affirmative asylum backlog. The short story is that the nationwide backlog continues to grow, albeit quite slowly. Also, the growth is not evenly distributed among the various Asylum Offices–some are seeing their backlogs get larger; others are seeing their backlogs shrink. Here, we’ll take a closer look at what is happening in terms of the backlog, and also review some of the (surprising) answers that the Asylum Division gave to questions posed at the quarterly stakeholders meeting.
First, some numbers. In February 2019, the nationwide backlog was 326,767 cases; in March, it was 327,984, meaning that the backlog grew at a rate of less than 0.4%, which is pretty insignificant. However, when we break down the growth rate by Asylum Office, we see a different picture. Some offices had growing backlogs: Arlington (+1.5%), Boston (+0.2%), Houston (+1.8%), Miami (+0.8%), New York (+0.2%), New Orleans (+4.1%), and San Francisco (+0.5%). Other offices had shrinking backlogs: Chicago (-0.2%), Los Angeles (-1.3%), and Newark (-1.9%).
What these numbers mean for asylum seekers is not entirely clear. For people in the backlog, only three offices seem to be making any headway at all, and so if your case is stuck in Chicago, LA or Newark, there is at least some hope that you will eventually receive an interview. Backlogged applicants in the other offices are unlikely to receive an interview any time soon, unless they can expedite their case.
For new applicants, my suspicion is that offices with shrinking backlogs are more likely to interview newly-filed cases. For example, most of our cases are filed in three offices: Arlington, Chicago, and Newark. Arlington has a growing backlog, and our experience there is that a minority of our newly filed (LIFO) cases receive interviews. In Chicago and Newark, which both have shrinking backlogs, our newly-filed cases all seem to receive interviews.
So if you plan to file for asylum, and want to maximize the chance for a fast interview, are you better off filing in Chicago, LA or Newark? Maybe. But one issue is that USCIS moves resources from office to office, and so a fast office today might be a slow office tomorrow. An example of this is Los Angeles. For years, LA was the office with the largest asylum backlog. Then, at some point, headquarters sent some help (or made some sort of change), and now LA is one of the “fast” offices. At the Asylum Division Quarterly Stakeholder meeting last month, we asked about the inequitable delays, and the leadership told us that in summer, they re-evaluate how resources are distributed. So maybe there will be changes in the coming months, and this could affect how the local offices process their cases.
What about grant rates at the different offices? There are different ways to calculate grant rates, and so to some degree, whether a particular asylum office is “easy” depends on how you crunch the numbers. I prefer to factor out “no shows” for obvious reasons. I also factor out one-year bar cases, which is arguably a bad idea, and cases referred without an interview. In other words, I want to know the grant rate for cases filed on time, where the person shows up for his interview. Using that method, the overall grant rate for the U.S. for March 2019 (the most recent month available) is 47.7% (had I not factored out the cases I don’t like, the grant rate would be much lower: 27.5%). Looking at grant rates for each office, we have: Arlington (44.0%), Boston (37.8%), Chicago (55.6%), Houston (44.7%), Los Angeles (68.3%), Miami (25.5%), Newark (43.1%), New York (23.7%), New Orleans (68.3%), and San Francisco (69.3%).
While I think there is some value to these numbers, it is important to remember that different offices serve different populations, and some populations are more likely to be denied than others. For example, though many Central American asylum seekers face severe danger, they often have a hard time winning asylum because the harm they typically face does not easily fit within a protected category under the asylum statute. For this reason, an office with many Central American cases might have a lower grant rate than an office that serves a different population. Put another way, a strong case is likely to win regardless of the office where you file. Even so, when you have such a wide range of approval rates, it’s hard to argue that a person is not better off filing in LA, San Francisco or New Orleans, as opposed to Miami or New York.
So that’s more-or-less where we are in terms of the backlog and asylum grant rates, but there is other news from the Asylum Division as well, including about the LIFO system itself. Here, the Asylum Division is claiming a win: “Since the adoption of the LIFO scheduling policy, the Asylum Division has seen an approximately 30% decrease in receipts [i.e., newly-filed asylum cases].” The theory being that frivolous asylum seekers, who just want a work permit, are deterred from filing by the LIFO system. I don’t doubt that the number of asylum seekers has dropped since January 2018, when LIFO went into effect, but I am not convinced that LIFO gets credit (or blame) for this. There could be many reasons for the down turn, including normal fluctuations in applications, the hostile environment for asylum seekers, greater difficulty in obtaining a U.S. visa, etc. However, given that the Asylum Division views LIFO as contributing to a reduction in applications, I would not expect a change in that policy any time soon.
Also at the Stakeholders meeting, the Asylum Division informed us that, between October 2018 and March 2019, “approximately 70 percent of asylum office final decisions were made within two weeks of the completed interview.” I’m a bit more skeptical about this claim. At least I do not see it for my clients, who usually wait months (at least) for a decision. Admittedly, most of my clients are not typical asylum seekers, who come from Latin America and China, and that may skew my perspective (many of my clients come from Muslim countries, which seem to require longer background checks).
One final point: There have been rumors that the Asylum Division is terminating asylum grants for people from Ethiopia due to improved country conditions. In response to a question on this point, the Asylum Division states–
The Asylum Division initiates termination review when we receive person specific evidence that an individual asylee may be subject to termination of asylum status for any of the applicable grounds under 8 C.F.R. § 208.24. We have not issued any policy memos/directives/other information regarding the termination of asylum status based on the individual no longer having a well-founded fear of persecution due to changed country conditions in the individual’s country of nationality or last habitual residence.
In other words, there is no blanket policy to terminate asylum for Ethiopians. Whether this means that Ethiopian asylees are safe, I am not sure, but at least there is no general policy to terminate asylum in such cases.
So that’s the latest from the Asylum Division. If the recent agreement with Mexico blocks applicants from coming here, we might see resources moving from the border to the backlog, which could cause things to speed up. Only time will tell, and if there is news at the next Quarterly Meeting, I will try to post it here.
It’s the season of miracles. One day’s worth of oil burns for eight days. A child is born to a virgin mother. The Eagles will return to the Super Bowl. OK, that last one is probably a bridge too far, but I know miracles happen because the asylum backlog is shrinking. Yes, shrinking.
As usual in asylum world, the news is not quite so straightforward, but let’s look at the newest data from the Asylum Division and try to break down what’s happening. The most recent report covers the months of July, August, and September 2018. The number of asylum cases pending in the United States is shown in the chart below:
| July 2018 | 320,663 |
| August 2018 | 320,314 |
| September 2018 | 319,202 |
So between July and September 2018, the backlog shrank by 1,461 cases, or about 0.5%. Prior to July, the backlog was still increasing, though for a few months growth had been pretty flat. This means that more cases are being completed than are being filed.
The first question is, Why is this happening? Looking at the data, it seems that the main reasons are that the number of new cases being filed is down and the number of cases being interviewed is up. Between July and September 2018, there were 23,257 new asylum cases filed. For the same period in 2017, there were 30,804 new cases filed. This represents a decrease of nearly 25%. Also, between July and September 2018, the Asylum Offices conducted 19,573 interviews. For this period in 2017, they conducted 15,405 interviews. Thus, the number of cases interviewed has increased by about 27%. The total number of cases completed during this time frame has also increased, from 16,852 in 2017 to 24,695 in 2018, an increase of almost 47%.
Why have the number of new cases gone down? The most obvious answer is that fewer people are able to get to the United States. Between the “Muslim ban,” the generally hostile attitude towards foreigners, and the Trump Administration’s machinations at the border, it is more difficult for people to come to our country. For example, in September 2017, the State Department issued 652,035 non-immigrant visas worldwide. During September 2018, the State Department issued 620,158 visas, which represents about a 5% decrease. However, for countries that “send” us asylum seekers, the drop appears much more dramatic. Take Venezuela, the top source country for asylum seekers. The number of B visas issued for Venezuelans dropped from 1,861 in September 2017 to 1,060 in September 2018, a drop of 43%. If fewer people are coming here, especially from troubled countries, it stands to reason that we will see fewer asylum applications.
Also, the Trump Administration has made its attitude towards non-Americans quite clear. It has also ginned up hostility and anger more generally. In a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face, I suppose making our country a less attractive place to live means that fewer people will want to come here.
Why have the number of interviews gone up? One explanation is that fewer Asylum Division resources are being deployed to the border, and so this is freeing up officers to interview affirmative asylum applicants.
Anyone who arrives at the border (or an airport) and who states that they need protection should receive a Credible Fear Interview (an initial evaluations of asylum eligibility). These interviews are conducted by Asylum Officers. When the officers are doing CFIs, they are not working on “regular” asylum cases. The large number of CFIs is widely believed to have led to the backlog. However, here we run into an anomaly. In FY2017, Asylum Officers issued 79,710 CFI decisions. In FY2018, they issued 97,728 decisions, an increase of nearly 23%. Somehow, despite a significant increase in CFIs, the Asylum Division managed to process more affirmative cases.
My guess is that this “anomaly” is the result of increased people power. The Asylum Division has hired large numbers of Officers who deal exclusively with CFIs. Many of these Officers perform interviews remotely (there is an office in Arlington, Virginia dedicated to CFIs). So perhaps this explains how the Asylum Division was able to make progress on affirmative cases while still processing large numbers of CFIs.
Aside from hiring more Officers, the Asylum Division has tried to increase productivity by identifying cases that have been filed more than 10 years after the applicant arrived in the United States, and to offer those applicants an opportunity to skip the interview and go directly to Immigration Court. Some applicants have filed asylum primarily as a vehicle to get into court, where they will seek other relief (usually Cancellation of Removal). However, the impact of this plan seems fairly marginal. The number of cases referred to court without an interview during the three-month period was 1,275 in 2017 and 1,680 in 2018. The total number of cases referred to Immigration Court based on a filing deadline referral (i.e., the applicant missed the one-year asylum-filing deadline, failed to demonstrate an exception to the rule, and probably received a truncated interview) was 5,138 in 2017 and 6,684 in 2018. Also, the number of “no shows” increased from 2,072 in 2017 to 3,040 in 2018. Collectively, all this probably made a modest contribution to increased productivity.
All this leads to the final, and probably most important question: How will all this affect people who are stuck in the backlog? I think the answer here is, It depends.
First and most obviously, it depends on whether this trend continues. I think there is good reason to believe that the trend will continue. Between the Trump Administration’s efforts to block people from coming to the U.S. and the Asylum Division’s seeming ability to simultaneously process CFIs and affirmative cases, I expect we will see continued progress on the backlog.
Second, it depends on which particular Asylum Office we are talking about. Some offices are dealing with their backlogs better than others. For example, in September 2018, some offices completed more cases than they received (Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark, and New York). Other offices received more cases than they completed (Arlington, Boston, Houston, Miami, New Orleans, and San Francisco). This changes month-to-month, and so it is difficult to guess how a particular case will ultimately fare, but you can see the data for yourself and make your own predictions.
Of course, all this can change quickly, depending on the state of the world, our government’s policies, and the ability of the Asylum Division to keep pace with new cases. But for now at least, the backlog is shrinking. For those stuck waiting, I suppose that is a rare bit of good news.
Someone–maybe a new age guru–once defined for me the Buddhist concept of time: Once every hundred years, a monk walks up to a mountain and brushes it lightly with a feather. In a short time, the mountain will be eroded to nothing.
This is also good way to think about the asylum backlog. If you assume that the mountain is growing. And you assume that the monk sometimes forgets to show up.
If you’re stuck in the backlog, you don’t need anyone to tell you how slow it is. The wait is particularly painful for asylum seekers separated from spouses and children, but it is bad for everyone. The effects are psychologically and financial, lives are put on hold, career and education opportunities are missed, time with loved ones is lost forever. People who are often already traumatized are re-traumatized by the endless waiting and uncertainty.
So what’s happening with the backlog lately? The latest data we have is from June 2018. It’s not always easy to understand the statistics from the asylum office, at least for me, but here, I will discuss what we know.
First off, the backlog, which has been growing for years, seems to have leveled off this Spring. Between April and June 2018, the backlog grew from 319,056 cases to 319,563 cases. That’s a growth rate of less than 0.1% per month. Does this mean that the Asylum Division is finally getting a handle on the backlog? Maybe, but I think it is still too soon to know. One issue is that when the system changed from FIFO to LIFO in January 2018, the volume of new cases dropped. Now that lawyers and applicants have mostly adjusted to the new system, we might expect a higher volume of cases post-June. Also, it seems more people have been arriving at the Southern border lately, and this likely will divert resources that would otherwise have been used to adjudicate affirmative asylum cases. In any event, we’ll have to keep an eye on the overall numbers to see whether the trend from this Spring continues.
Second, from the chart below, which contains information from June 2018, you can see that some offices are doing better than others in terms of interviews and decisions. A number of offices are completing more cases than they are receiving (Chicago, LA, Newark, NY, and San Francisco). Logically, you would think this means that these offices are interviewing all new cases that come in, and making progress on backlogged cases. But I am not so sure that is true. If you look at the number of interviews actually conducted, you can see that only Los Angeles and Newark are interviewing more cases than they are receiving. So for me at least, how many new cases and backlogged cases are being interviewed and decided is still something of a mystery (also, remember, these numbers are just a snapshot from one month–June 2018).
| Office | New Cases | Interviews Scheduled/Conducted | Cases Completed |
| Arlington | 885 | 637/374 | 664 |
| Boston | 259 | 292/160 | 221 |
| Chicago | 611 | 690/507 | 750 |
| Houston | 752 | 397/253 | 440 |
| Los Angeles | 867 | 2,145/1,113 | 1,230 |
| Miami | 2,046 | 1,494/929 | 1,298 |
| Newark | 692 | 1,635/911 | 1,179 |
| New York | 946 | 1,494/815 | 1,180 |
| New Orleans | 204 | 374/117 | 201 |
| San Francisco | 605 | 1,147/646 | 730 |
| TOTAL | 7,867 | 10,307/5,825 | 7,893 |
There are other mysteries contained in these numbers. Why are so many interviews scheduled, but so few actually conducted (less than 57% of scheduled interviews were conducted in June 2018)? Some interviews are cancelled by the Asylum Offices; others (more) are cancelled by the applicants. You would think that under LIFO, most applicants would file a complete case and be prepared for an interview when it comes, but maybe not (and if you’re wondering, the reschedule rate was about the same under FIFO).
Another anomaly–though not quite a mystery–appears in the numbers for the Miami Asylum Office, which is receiving far more new cases than any other office. The reason? It may be because Venezuela has surpassed all other countries as a source nation for asylum seekers, and I suspect that these applicants largely land in Miami. Indeed, if you look at the top sending countries for asylum seekers, you will see that for the last three months (at least), Venezuelans make up more than 25% of all affirmative asylum seekers in the United States.
One final point for today. I posted previously about the declining grant rate for affirmative asylum cases. At that time (February 2018), the overall approval rate for FY 2018 cases was 26%. The most recent numbers paint a similar picture. The overall approval rate for April 2018 is 23.5%. The rate for May is 26.3%, and for June is 25.0%. However, if we remove from the mix cases where the applicant did not show up for the interview, where the applicant declined an interview (and went directly to court to seek other relief), and where the application was denied due to the one-year bar, the situation is better: The approval rate under those circumstances for April 2018 is 41.4%. May is 44.5%, and June is 43.0%. So this means, generally speaking, if you file for asylum on time, and you show up to your interview, you have a decent chance of winning your case. Let’s call that good news, and end there for today. Au revoir!
On January 29, 2018, the Asylum Division changed the way it prioritizes cases. Since 2015, asylum applicants were being interviewed in the order that their cases were filed. Oldest cases first, followed by newer cases (“first in, first out” or FIFO). During this period, the number of people waiting for an interview—the backlog—grew and grew.
Now, under the new system, cases are interviewed on a “last in, first out” basis or LIFO. This is basically the same system we had prior to 2015. The backlog began under the pre-2015 LIFO because the Asylum Offices did not have the people-power to interview everyone who applied for asylum. The result: Some cases were interviewed, while others “disappeared” into the backlog. Because this was unfair to “disappeared” applicants, the Asylum Division eventually switched to FIFO, which had the virtue of being more fair, but did nothing to ameliorate the backlog.
Under the Trump Administration, what’s old is new again, and so we are back to LIFO. How is LIFO working out? Some new data from USCIS gives us an idea. The short answer, if you don’t have time to read this whole post, is that the backlog is not about to be resolved any time soon. So if you are currently stuck waiting for an asylum interview, you might want to get comfortable, as you’ll probably be waiting for a while (or you can try to expedite your case). If you have time to keep reading, let’s look at where we are, and how you can best navigate through LIFO-land.
First, as of March 31, 2018, there were 318,624 asylum applications pending in the backlog. That’s “applications” not “applicants.” Since some applications include multiple family members, the number of people stuck in the affirmative asylum backlog is probably quite a bit higher than 318,624.
In response to the backlog, the Asylum Division has taken several actions. For years now, they’ve been staffing up. According to a recent report from the USCIS Ombudsman, since FY 2016, the number of Asylum Officers has increased from 533 to 686 (and they continue to hire – if you want to sign up, check out this job posting). Since we’ve dramatically reduced the number of refugees coming to the U.S., Refugee Officers have more free time, and so they are being rotated through the Asylum Offices on 12-week stints. We are also expecting a new National Vetting Center (in 2019 or 2020) that will deal with security checks and fraud issues, in order to free up more time for Asylum Officers to do their work. All these changes should allow the Asylum Offices to process more cases.
We also now have LIFO. Under this system, the Asylum Offices prioritize cases as follows: First priority are rescheduled interviews, whether the interview was rescheduled by the Asylum Office or the applicant. Second priority are asylum applications that have been pending less than 21 days. This does not mean you will receive an interview within 21 days of filing. Rather, cases less than 21 days old will receive priority to be scheduled for an interview. Third priority are all other affirmative cases, including the 318,624 currently in the backlog.
According to the Ombudsman’s report, not all new cases will receive priority for an interview:
Cases subject to interviews at “circuit ride” locations (generally a USCIS field office situated closer than the asylum office to an applicant’s residence) will not fall under the 21-day time frame. Rather, the Asylum Division will schedule these cases for interviews as resources permits.
This means that if you want a quick interview, you have to live in a location that is covered by one of the main offices or a sub-office (Arlington, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Newark, New York, New Orleans or San Francisco), as opposed to a “circuit ride” location, which is a USCIS field office that is visited periodically by Asylum Officers (there are many, but some examples are Atlanta, Buffalo, and Seattle). I do not know of an on-line listing of areas covered by circuit ride locations, but I suppose you can email your Asylum Office to ask. If you live in a circuit-ride area, you can ask to be interviewed in a main office–sometimes they accommodate such requests.
Assuming you file at one of the main or sub-offices, the likelihood of actually receiving an interview (as opposed to disappearing into the backlog) varies by office. The chart below is based on very preliminary data from the Asylum Division. It shows the (very approximate) likelihood of having your case interviewed in each office.
In the chart, “New Cases Filed” is the number of asylum cases filed in that particular office for March 2018. “Interviews” is the number of interviews actually conducted in March 2018 (as opposed to the number of interviews scheduled and then canceled, which is quite a bit higher). The percentage figure is the rough likelihood that an applicant in that particular office would have received an interview in March 2018. And the “Completed” column shows how many cases were completed during the month, which—when compared to the number of cases filed—gives an idea of how much the backlog grew or shrunk in that office for March 2018 (the +/- in the Completed column).
| Office | New Cases Filed | Interviews | Completed |
| Arlington | 920 | 494 / 54% | 408 / +512 |
| Boston | 289 | 132 / 46% | 178 / +111 |
| Chicago | 550 | 675 / 100% | 550 / +0 |
| Houston | 751 | 583 / 78% | 504 / +247 |
| Los Angeles | 997 | 708 / 71% | 1,243 / -246 |
| Miami | 2,219 | 798 / 36% | 920 / +1,299 |
| Newark | 668 | 792 / 100% | 865 / -197 |
| New York | 802 | 690 / 86% | 883 / -81 |
| New Orleans | 206 | 166 / 81% | 280 / -74 |
| San Francisco | 653 | 529 / 81% | 687 / -34 |
There are some caveats to this chart. First, I compare new cases filed with cases interviewed to determine the likelihood that you will receive an interview in that particular office. This is an apples/oranges comparison since we don’t know how many of the interviews were newly filed cases, as opposed to rescheduled interviews or expedites. Worse, the cases interviewed were probably filed in January or February, since it takes some time to actually schedule the interview. This makes the comparison even less reliable. Second, this data is for only one month, and March was probably not a “normal” month, in that the system was still adjusting to the change from FIFO to LIFO. So how useful this chart is for predicting the likelihood of an interview going forward, I do not know. Finally, this chart was prepared by me. Using math. Since I’m no Ramanujan, you should take all this with a big grain of salt.
That said, this is the best data we have, and maybe we can draw some tentative conclusions. For one, the backlog is generally growing, not shrinking. However, this varies by office. If your case is stuck in an office where the backlog is growing, it is unlikely that you will get an interview any time soon. If you are in an office where the backlog is shrinking, maybe you will eventually receive an interview. Also, if you are a new applicant and you want an interview quickly, you may be better off filing in Chicago or Newark, since they seem to be interviewing pending cases faster than they are receiving new cases (conversely, if you want a slower interview schedule, you are better off living in an area covered by a circuit ride location or an office where the backlog is growing). Again, all this is quite preliminary, and we will have to see how things progress when they release the next batch of data in a few months.
Another bit of information we can glean from the Ombudsman report is that local asylum offices “report a 25 percent drop in affirmative receipts in the immediate aftermath of the change to LIFO scheduling.” The implication/hope is that the new LIFO system is deterring people from filing frivolous asylum claims. I think there is another, more likely explanation, however. In my office, for example, when the Asylum Division switched from FIFO to LIFO, we stopped filing cases for a few months in order to adjust how we filed (under FIFO, we filed a bare-bones application, consisting of the I-589 form and the passport; under LIFO, we file a complete case, which takes much longer to prepare). My guess is that once people adjust to LIFO, there will be little change in the number of cases being filed (of course, since fewer aliens are coming to the U.S. these days, we can expect fewer asylum applications for that reason).
One final piece of news is a pilot program to refer one-year bar cases directly to the Immigration Court without an interview. The Asylum Division has identified up to 50,000 pending cases where the applicant entered the U.S. more than 10 years before filing for asylum. Such people may have filed for asylum in order to be referred to Court, where they will seek other relief (most notably, Cancellation of Removal). So far, the Asylum Division has contacted about 1,500 such people, and given them the option to skip the interview and go directly to Court. Depending on the case, and the person’s goals, this may be an attractive option for some, though I suspect anyone with a real fear of returning to the home country will prefer to have an asylum interview.
So there you have it. It is probably too soon to draw any firm conclusions from the data at hand, but based on what we know so far, it seems likely that the backlog will be with us for the long term. Keeping informed about the Asylum Office’s statistics and policies may allow some applicants to increase their chance for an interview. As more data becomes available, I will try to post that information here.
It’s been a month since the Asylum Division surprised us by changing from a first-in, first-out (FI-FO) system to a last-in, first-out (LI-FO) system. Under the new system, cases were supposed to be interviewed in the following order of priority: (1) Applications that were scheduled for an interview, but the interview had to be rescheduled at the applicant’s request or the needs of USCIS; (2) Applications that have been pending 21 days or less; and (3) All other pending affirmative asylum applications will be scheduled for interviews starting with newer filings and working back towards older filings. So in other words, the Asylum Offices would interview newly filed cases first; then, if they had extra time, they would interview recently filed cases, working their way backwards through the backlog.
We’re now a month in, and the new system is not working exactly as advertised. In our office, for example, we had one client whose case was filed in mid-January 2018. The case was scheduled for an interview earlier this week (we postponed it, as we needed more time to gather evidence). This is about what we expected under the LI-FO system. Another client, whose case was filed in August 2014 was scheduled for an interview in mid-March. The Asylum Office mailed out the interview notice in mid-February, at a time when LI-FO should have been in place. This is not what we were expecting. So what the heck is happening?
It turns out that different Asylum Offices are implementing the LI-FO system in different ways. In a conference call with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers Association), the Asylum Division informed us that if they do not have enough new cases to fill their schedule, Asylum Offices will interview cases from the backlog. The different offices apparently have the authority to decide which backlogged cases they will choose to interview–old cases, new cases or (I guess) whatever cases they feel like interviewing.
In my local office–Arlington, Virginia–it seems they are interviewing old backlog cases–from 2014. This is contrary to the interview priorities published on January 31, 2018, where the Asylum Division indicated they would work their way backwards through the backlog. It sounds like other Asylum Offices will interview newer backlogged cases–from January 2018 or December 2017, in conformity with the published priorities.
On one level, my preference is that the Asylum Offices interview older cases first, as that seems more fair. But frankly, at this point, my main concern is that they just make a decision and stick with it. It’s bad enough that the Asylum Division announced a surprise change and basically upended the expectations of asylum seekers (and their lawyers). But now, it seems they can’t even follow their own policy.
For advocates, including yours truly, this makes it very difficult to know how to prioritize cases and advise clients. Worse, so much uncertainty makes it even more difficult for asylum seekers to endure the long waits.
Of course, all things pass, and my guess is that we are currently in a period of transition. After the recent change to LI-FO, many attorneys and applicants stopped filing cases. Prior to the change, we were filing bare-bones asylum applications with the intention of finishing the cases later, as the interview date approached. But now, given the (supposed) short time between filing the case and receiving the interview, we have to file completed cases. It takes more time to prepare complete cases, and so we are adjusting how we do things. As a result, fewer cases are being filed and the Asylum Offices have a brief pause to work on backlogged cases.
However, once everyone re-calibrates, I expect the volume of new asylum applications will return to normal, and the Asylum Offices will probably be interviewing new cases, and maybe–if we’re lucky–some cases from the backlog.
Once things settle down, it would be nice to know how the different Asylum Offices plan to interview backlog cases going forward. That way, asylum seekers will have some idea what to expect, and attorneys can advise their clients and manage their caseload. In this sense, the now-defunct Asylum Office Scheduling Bulletin was quite helpful. At least we had some idea about what was going on.
My hope is that the Asylum Offices will choose to provide us with some information about how they are operating. This shouldn’t be all that difficult since each office has its own website. Indeed, whether they are moving through their backlog from oldest to newest or from newest to oldest, I don’t see why they can’t simply tell us where they are.
And while I’m wishing, maybe they can also give other useful information on their website, like the deadlines for filing evidence and the procedures for rescheduling, expediting, and short-listing. Repeat customers like me already know the rules, but pro se applicants don’t, and there is currently no easy way for them to find out. Why not simply post this information on the Asylum Office website for everyone to see?
I know that all this is probably asking for too much. I also know that the Asylum Offices are in a tough spot these days. The Trump Administration is clearly hostile to their mission of protecting bona fide refugees, and anything they do to make the process more user-friendly might come back to bite them. Also, they are potentially on the cusp of a massive surge in new cases, if nothing is done for DACA or TPS recipients. Nevertheless, it would be nice if they could follow the policy that they announced less than a month ago. Or, if they don’t plan to follow the policy, at least keep everyone informed about what they are doing.
Last week, the Asylum Division changed the way it processes cases. Instead of interviewing asylum cases in the order they were filed (first-in, first-out), cases will now be interviewed on a last-in, first-out or LI-FO basis. We’ve been learning more about the reasons for this change, and I want to share what I’ve heard here. But before I get to that, I want to discuss another important change that has recently become apparent: The dramatic drop in grant rates for cases at most asylum offices.
The below chart compares asylum approval rates at the various asylum offices for the months of December 2016 and December 2017 (the most recent month when data is available). Admittedly, this is a snapshot of events, and an imperfect snapshot at that. Nevertheless, I think it illustrates a larger trend.
The left number in each column represents the number of cases approved during the month. The number on the right is the number of cases completed. The percentage shows the percentage of cases approved in that office. So in December 2016, Arlington approved 89 cases out of 317 completed, meaning that 28% of completed cases were approved. Conversely, 72% of applicants were denied asylum or referred to court, but that includes people who failed to show up for their interview, so the denial rate for people who actually appear is not as bad as it seems from the chart (as they say, in life, eighty percent of success is showing up). With that out of the way, here are the stats:
| Asylum Office | December 2016 | December 2017 |
| Arlington | 89/317 (28%) | 80/276 (29%) |
| Boston | 45/108 (42%) | 27/168 (16%) |
| Chicago | 75/186 (40%) | 80/362 (22%) |
| Houston | 28/119 (24%) | 58/437 (13%) |
| Los Angeles | 258/528 (49%) | 389/1195 (33%) |
| Miami | 73/243 (30%) | 76/650 (12%) |
| Newark | 118/358 (33%) | 155/866 (18%) |
| New York | 103/496 (21%) | 87/858 (10%) |
| New Orleans | 41/83 (49%) | 83/188 (44%) |
| San Francisco | 219/303 (72%) | 196/429 (46%) |
| United States | 1049/2741 (38.3%) | 1231/5429 (22.7%) |
So you can see that asylum grant rates are pretty dramatically down at most offices, and that for the entire country, they are down about 40% (from 38.3% to 22.7%) (you can see the source for these statistics here for 2016 and here for 2017). While the various grant rates could represent anomalies, they comport with larger trends, as shown in the next chart, which lists grant rates for the U.S. as a whole over the last few years:
| Fiscal Year | Asylum Grant Rate |
| FY 2015 | 45% |
| FY 2016 | 41% |
| FY 2017 | 34% |
| FY 2018 | 26% |
You can see from this chart that asylum grant rates have been dropping since FY 2015 (which began on October 1, 2014), but the decrease is more pronounced in the two most recent fiscal years (and of course, we are only a few months into FY 2018). Further, if the December 2017 data is any indicator, the grant rate is continuing to drop.
My first question–and be forewarned, I don’t really intend to answer these questions–is, Why is this happening? The temptation is to attribute the drop to President Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda, but I don’t find that explanation very convincing. First, grant rates began to fall long before Mr. Trump took office. Second, even after he was sworn in–in the second quarter of FY 2017–it takes months to implement new policies. Most asylum officers were hired pre-Trump, and that was especially true in FY 2017, since it takes time to hire and train new people. In addition, I have not observed any real changes in the pool of asylum officers that I meet (then again, the grant rate at my local office–Arlington–seems to have held steady, at least as illustrated in the first chart).
So if it’s not President Trump, what’s going on? One possibility–and I suspect this is the explanation that the Asylum Division favors–is that a higher portion of cases interviewed in recent years are meritless. In other words, as the backlog grew and delays became longer, people with weak cases were incentivized to file for asylum in order to get their employment authorization document (“EAD”). These people knew that their cases would take years, and so they filed mostly to obtain some status here and work legally. But now, as more and more of these people are reaching the interview stage, their cases are being denied. There is some evidence for this theory–according to the Asylum Division, of the 314,000 backlogged asylum cases, 50,000+ applications were filed more than 10 years after the applicant entered the United States. For various reasons, such cases are more likely to be meritless, and–even if they are legitimate–they are more likely to be denied due to the one year asylum filing deadline.
If this second explanation is correct, then perhaps there will be a silver lining to the recent change in how asylum cases are interviewed. If people get faster interviews, maybe fewer meritless applicants will seek asylum.
Whether or not this will work, we shall see. But a test is soon coming (probably). The Trump Administration has ended TPS (Temporary Protected Status) for El Salvador and other countries. It has also terminated the DACA program. This means that in the absence of a legislative fix, hundreds of thousands of people will have no way to avoid deportation other than to go into hiding or to seek asylum. You can bet that many of them will seek asylum (and indeed, given the violent countries from whence they came, many have legitimate reasons to fear return).
We know from a recent meeting at the Arlington Asylum Office that the end of TPS and DACA were two reasons for changing to the FI-LO process. But whether this new procedure will stem the potential tidal wave of applications, I have my doubts.
All this brings us to the final question (for today)–What does this mean for asylum seekers? As usual, I don’t have a good answer. People filing now can probably expect an interview soon and should submit all evidence so they are ready for the interview. However, if volume is too high, not everyone will get an interview. My impression is that if the interview is not scheduled within 21 days of receiving the receipt, then the case will “disappear” and will only be interviewed once the Asylum Office starts working on backlogged cases. It’s likely that some cases will disappear, since the number of people seeking asylum is still out-pacing the government’s ability to interview applicants. Also, there are (once again) increasing numbers of asylum seekers arriving at the U.S./Mexico border, and the Asylum Offices must devote resources to those cases as well.
Local offices control the expedite process and the short list, and it seems that most offices will continue to offer those options. However, the Asylum Division is expecting fewer “no shows” with the new system, and so there may be less slots available for expedited or short-listed cases.
Finally, under the pre-December 2014 system, when an asylum case was sent to Immigration Court, the judge would schedule a quick hearing date for any applicant who had not yet received his EAD (in an effort to dissuade meritless applicants from seeking asylum merely to get an EAD). It looks like the Immigration Courts will again be doing this same thing, and so if you have a fast asylum interview and you are referred to court, you should be prepared for a fast hearing date in court.
For what it’s worth, my impression is that the Asylum Division is well aware of the pain it will inflict by re-ordering how asylum cases are interviewed. But they are looking at the “big picture” and they hope that changing to a FI-LO system will reduce meritless applications and ultimately benefit legitimate asylum seekers. I hope they are correct, but until then, I fear things will be worse before they get better.